Revisión sistemática de los riesgos en la adquisición de buques: identificación de riesgos y metodologías para su análisis y evaluación.
Systematic Review of Risks in Ship Acquisition: Identification of Risks and Methodologies for their Analysis and Evaluation
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La adquisición de buques es un proceso estratégico que requiere una cuidadosa toma de decisiones en condiciones de incertidumbre, en el que las alternativas de diseño deben evaluarse en función de múltiples factores, siendo el riesgo uno de los más críticos en esta etapa temprana. Objetivo. Analizar sistemáticamente los riesgos asociados antes de seleccionar la alternativa más apropiada desde una perspectiva de gestión de riesgos. Metodología. Se realizó una revisión sistemática de la literatura para identificar, categorizar y analizar los principales factores de riesgo y las metodologías empleadas para evaluarlos. La revisión se realizó de acuerdo con las directrices PRISMA e incluye trabajos académicos revisados por pares publicados entre 2014 y 2024, que fueron examinados por relevancia y calidad. Resultados. Los hallazgos revelan un enfoque fragmentado para la evaluación de riesgos, siendo la lógica difusa y los métodos de toma de decisiones multicriterio (como AHP, TOPSIS y Fuzzy-AHP) las técnicas más utilizadas. Sin embargo, pocos estudios presentan un marco integral que integre las diversas categorías de riesgo durante la fase de selección de buques. Conclusión. Este artículo contribuye al avance del campo al proponer un marco conceptual para la toma de decisiones integrada y basada en el riesgo en la adquisición de buques, mejorando así el rigor, la transparencia y la sostenibilidad de las estrategias de adquisición.
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